It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. -- Mark Twain
烧冷灶 + 先收集筹码，然后在高位卖出寻求做t的机会，如果没有做t成功，也可以做到lock profit的作用。
公司基本面：CFO都预测不了
市场情绪：永远不可能预测到
美联储印钞：水涨船高
But the truth is most professional fund managers fail to earnenough for their investors to make up for the high fees theycharge. You don't need any advanced education or specialinsights in the market to outperform up to 92% of professionalfund managers over the long run
All you need to do is buy an S&P 500 index fund, such as theVanguard S&P 500 ETF(NYSEMKT: VOO), and hold it forever.
但事实是，大多数职业基金经理并没能为投资者赚到足以抵消其高昂费用的回报。从长期来看，你不需要任何高深的金融教育或特殊的市场洞见，就能跑赢多达92%的专业基金经理。
你所需要做的，只是买入一只标普500指数基金，例如先锋标普500ETF(Vanguard S&P 500ETF,NYSEMKT:VOO)，然后长期持有,永远不卖。
My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-termgovernment bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.
我给受托人的建议再简单不过了:将10%的现金投资于短期政府债券，剩下90%投入一只费用极低的标普500指数基金。一巴菲特